There has been massive scale-up of HCV testing and treatment in England and UK to reduce HCV infection and meet WHO targets of “eliminating HCV as a public health problem”. A key target is to reduce HCV incidence (new infections) to less than 2 per 100 cases in people who inject drugs (PWID). To track these targets requires evidence from public health surveillance and statistical and mathematical models.
We have developed models that simulate HCV transmission and disease progression among PWID in prison and community for England and Scotland. These models use local data on PWID population size, infection rates, HCV testing and treatment, harm reduction interventions such as opioid agonist therapy (OAT), and incarceration status to estimate how HCV incidence has changed over time.
The results help assess various public health measures in the UK. These include:
(a) whether HCV incidence in PWID has dropped below 2 cases per 100 person-years
(b) assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of prison high-intensity test and treat (HITTS) initiatives and reception (‘opt-out’) testing in England
(c) determine the interval at which each nation’s models can be updated, and (d) determine what is needed to maintain HCV elimination once it is attained.
Project aims
- Finalise the models and share it with key stakeholders
- Publish two research papers based on the findings
- Present the work at UK and international conferences
- Explore how the model could be used for Wales and the wider UK
Lead researchers
- Mr Kennedy Kipkoech
- Zoe Ward
- Professor Peter Vickerman
- Dr Jack Stone
- Professor Matt Hickman
- Professor Sema Mandal
- Dr Monica Desai
- Professor Sharon Hutchinson – Glasgow Caledonian University
